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Experts say the city - September 25

Experts say the city - September 25
Issue Time:2018-09-25
My steel: Last week, the domestic steel market price fluctuated and weakened. There was no obvious positive replenishment in the market transactions near the weekend, so the release of terminal demand was delayed until the eleventh holiday. From the perspective of production enterprises, due to the recent frequent environmental protection policies in various regions, it is difficult to increase the supply side, and with the low social resources, the willingness to maintain the price will remain unchanged in the short term. On the other hand, although there are certain costs and inventory support in terms of price, considering the follow-up demand follow-up situation can not be guaranteed, the operation of the merchants still tends to be mainly shipping, and the price chasing situation is relatively rare. It is expected that the domestic steel market price will run in a narrow range this week (2018.9.24-2018.9.28).

 

 

Steel House: On September 16, Tangshan City issued a key industry in autumn and winter differential peak production performance evaluation guidance, the peak production implementation time is October 1, 2018 - March 31, 1919. The steel industry implements differentiated peak production, in which Class A enterprises are not allowed to produce, Class B is limited to 30%, Class C is limited to 50%, Class D is limited to 70% and sintering is completely stopped; independent rolling enterprises have less than 10mg/m3 of particulate matter emissions. All of the following are discontinued. Different from last year's general demand for a certain proportion of production cuts, this year, with the improvement of air quality as the core, adopting differentiated peak production, encouraging and guiding enterprises to improve air quality through ultra-low emissions, and avoiding the adverse impact of environmental protection “one size fits all” on enterprises. At the same time, the forecast of steel production in autumn and winter is also weakened. From the recent market, near the National Day holiday, construction sites and end users have certain stocking needs; although the peak production limit may not be as expected, but in October will enter the peak winter production, the key areas of steel production will decline In addition, the current domestic market inventory is generally at a low level, and the market supply pressure is not large. It is expected that the domestic steel market price will be strong and volatile this week (2018.9.24-2018.9.28).

 

 

Lange: Last week, the spot price of construction steel in all parts of the world increased slightly compared with last week, and the price of billet and sheet price were weak and slightly lower. Last week, the market still had relatively large policies announced, but it was not a sudden policy. For example, Tangshan’s faulty production documents and the National Development and Reform Commission’s promotion of infrastructure meetings were all warm-up. After the news was released, it appeared to be shocking. At present, Hebei Tangshan autumn and winter peak production documents are released, but the overall production limit is still difficult to determine, while other provinces and cities within the 2+26 city have no policies, including the plain and the Yangtze River Delta autumn and winter air pollution. The prevention and control action plan is released, and it needs to be closely watched later.

 

What's more, in addition to environmental protection factors, there are still many factors affecting the market, and environmental protection is only one of them. It is the impact of the supply from the market. September is nearing the end, and it will enter October immediately. The two quarters are approaching. The changes in the market demand side need attention, and the rushing and replenishing conditions before the heating season, the winter storage situation and the changes in the two libraries. Peripheries such as the Sino-US trade war, the Fed's interest rate hike process, the situation of domestic monetary policy, and the implementation of expanding domestic demand will all have an important impact on the market.

 

Moreover, the dominant factors affecting the market in each time period are all changes, sometimes the factors will become secondary factors, other factors will rise to the dominant factor, sometimes the long and short entanglement, the market enters the sawing state. Therefore, it is necessary to take advantage of the situation and seize the main line to reduce losses and achieve greater benefits.

 

In the current steel market, due to the relatively high price level, the willingness of steel traders to speculatively purchase is very weak, mainly relying on sales that just need to support the market, so it is not easy to form a relatively obvious upward trend. At this stage, the demand for steel, especially the demand for construction steel, is recovering seasonally, and the total amount remains relatively normal. The demand for sheet metal is not ideal under the influence of the decline in output of the automobile industry. In the operation of the steel market, if there is a lack of large policy guidance and lack of the impact of sudden policies, it is generally difficult to have a clear directional trend by adjusting the overall supply and demand side, and it is more likely to maintain the shock.

 

 

Zhuo Chuang Wang Quotations: during the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the steel market price fell first and then stabilized, traders closed more market, the market trading atmosphere was lighter, the wire rebar mainstream fell steadily by 20, and the steel billets fell 10 times and then rose 10 times. Considering the Mid-Autumn Festival or the stage of replenishing the downstream construction site, the market price may have certain support. The overall steel market operation of this week (2018.9.24-2018.9.28) is stronger.

 

 

Han Weidong, deputy general manager of Youfa Group: The market situation has become clear. The Sino-US trade war is inevitable and the intensity is slightly smaller than expected. China's economic data is slightly weaker, and the government is taking various measures to stabilize the economy. This year's environmental protection has been set, not to "one size fits all", indicating that there will be no shortage of stocks. However, environmental protection will still play a role in the market for “cutting a knife” that does not meet environmental protection requirements. The market will fluctuate at a high level, waiting for the supply and demand relationship to reverse. Once the supply increases or the demand weakens, the market shock will end. Wait patiently, * There is no chance at all. We need to adjust the inventory and structure, balance the funds, and set a good few months after 2018*.

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