Experts say the steel market - August 01
My steel: Last week, the domestic steel market price consolidation trended stronger. At this stage, with the gradual improvement of market mentality and electronic disk stimulation, the price of spot resources has gradually increased, while some varieties have a certain release after the price has continued to rise slightly. In addition, there is no comparison between the current factory and social libraries. The big pressure therefore keeps the price strong for a while. On the other hand, the current spot resource cost is generally higher, while the spot price has risen, but the relative increase is not an exaggeration. Most merchants are more cautious in raising the price of the shipment. Therefore, the price increase in the near stage is driven by the trend. Callback. However, in terms of demand, although it has been released under the stimulation of a small increase in prices, the current high temperature weather and rainy water phenomenon frequently appear late or have a certain impact on demand. It is estimated that this week (2018.7.30-2018.8.3) domestic steel market prices may be dominated by shocks.
Steel House: Last week, the domestic steel market price generally fluctuated and rose, mainly related to the recent environmental protection and limited macroeconomic policy adjustment. It is understood that the recent restrictions on environmental protection in Tangshan have been continuously strengthened. From July 20th to August 31st, all districts and counties in Tangshan District began to implement the SO2, NO2, CO emission reduction action plan, comprehensive implementation of various emission reduction measures, steel as a key emission reduction industry, some steel mills blast furnace, sintering, etc. At the same time, since July 18, Tangshan City has launched three times of heavy pollution emergency response, requiring the steel enterprises to stop production of the sintering machine and shaft furnace, and further increase the production limit. On July 23, the executive meeting of the State Council deployed a better role in fiscal and financial policies. The meeting demanded that fiscal and financial policies should work together to serve the real economy more effectively and serve the macroeconomic situation more effectively. Among them, the active fiscal policy should be more active, and the sound monetary policy should be tight and moderate. From the recent market perspective, environmental law enforcement will continue to restrict the production capacity of steel mills; the fine-tuning of the national financial and fiscal policies will promote the real economy and help to hedge external risks; the inventory of construction steel market is still declining in the near future. There is a rebound but the magnitude is not large, and the orders of steel mills are basically normal. It is expected that the domestic steel market prices will generally fluctuate and rise this week (2018.7.30-2018.8.3).
Lange Mali: The two major factors affecting the market trend in recent days are mainly from the macro-industry aspects such as macro-policy and environmental protection, and the market expects a big change. The fundamentals of performance are still acceptable, and the two banks are both down, which also makes the market confidence more firm. These factors in August still directly or indirectly affect the pulse of the market trend, which is a major positive for the market!
Need to pay attention to is: First, the current price of the recent date has repeatedly exceeded the 4000 yuan integer mark, and repeatedly oscillated around this point, although the Friday disk still showed a strong upside. However, from a technical point of view, this position is more sensitive, and the fear of high psychology corresponds. At the same time, with the staged repair of the water patch, there is still a certain pressure on the large pull-up again.
In addition, from the perspective of macroeconomic policies, the Sino-US trade war has disrupted the process of deep domestic reforms. The Chinese side has offered two major killers, such as expanding domestic demand and loosening the currency. The positive effects on the bulk, especially the release of monetary policy, have greatly improved market expectations! But for now, it is difficult to see that this is turning. Although the policy of bottoming out in the context of trade wars is frequent, and the two evils of the economy are taken lightly, once the turn is equal to negating the efforts and achievements of the previous period, it is not worth the candle. Therefore, fine-tuning, moderately loose, and scale are important. In the later stage, this trend is still subject to progress observation. I am afraid that it will be difficult to take a fly to the sky. At least for the time being, it is not very clear.
Then there is the implementation of environmental protection and production restrictions, the sustainability of the latter and so on. At present, the expectation of supply tightening has indeed been achieved! Although the output of crude steel has remained at a high level driven by high profits, the output of spirals has continued to decline, which is also reflected in the significant decline in the factory and social libraries. In addition, the scope of the environmental protection policy has recently expanded.
The operating rate of blast furnaces in domestic small and medium-sized steel enterprises began to drop sharply. According to the operating rate of blast furnaces of hundreds of small and medium-sized steel enterprises in Lange Steel (No. 136): On July 27, 2018, there were 48 blast furnaces in 48 steel plants for maintenance (including production shutdown). And the furnace equipment, the same below), 12 more than last week, the volume of the overhaul blast furnace is 55150 cubic meters, an increase of 5190 cubic meters from last week. According to the volume calculation, the operating rate of blast furnaces of 100 small and medium-sized steel enterprises was 84.84%, down 1.43 percentage points from last week.
According to market research, with the implementation of the suspension of production in Tangshan on the 20th, many counties and cities in Tangshan issued announcements or notices to implement the production-restricted production plan to each steel mill, and the Fengrun District was implemented to the specific blast furnace of the steel mill. . The listed steel enterprises such as Jinxi directly issued the production limit rules directly in the announcement, and the implementation of limited production was much higher than before.
However, some problems have been found: if the document requires that the key counties and counties in the city have a limit of 50%, and the surrounding sub-focus is 30%, the actual limit of the actual production is 20-30%; otherwise, the furnace required by the previous document is confirmed to be discontinued. There are also few steel mills to implement; at the same time, most of the information that can be collected is about 10 days of maintenance plans for steel mills. In the later period, we need to pay close attention to the depth of the limit.
However, from the perspective of demand, although real estate investment has declined, the sales and new construction area data are better. This directly or indirectly affects 60% of the steel industry, and hedges some seasonal effects in the context of strong liquidity. And the negative impact of the trade war.
In general, the steel market may fluctuate in August due to favorable policies such as loose monetary easing, expansion of environmental protection and production expansion, and expansion of domestic demand. However, the trade war is not overwhelming and there is uncertainty in the macro news, and the fear of heights is superimposed. Once there is a rush, the market will face a test!
Zhuo Chuang Wang Quotations: Last week, the steel market quotation continued to be strong, considering that the current limited production and low inventory support for the market is strong, the price may continue to rise, but considering the current situation of the end of the month and the overall demand, etc. The weekly market price remains unchanged, but the high price will fall back and the overall shock will run. Specifically, the social inventory and steel mill inventory fell slightly, which played a strong role in the market mentality. To a certain extent, it will stimulate the enthusiasm of the market to get goods, and the transaction continued to improve last week. It is expected that the typhoon and rainy weather will pass this week. Continue to improve, while the futures rise pattern remains intact, still dominated by more ideas, the overall trend is still oscillating upward. Comprehensive analysis of multiple positives to stimulate steel prices continue to be strong, considering the current high price, limited upside, and high probability of falling back.
Han Weidong, deputy general manager of Youfa Group: Tangshan and other environmental protection and production restrictions and macro policy loose rumors, ignited the enthusiasm of the market, futures spot resonance rose! However, the key to environmental protection and production limitation depends on the balance between final production and demand. From the June production and the known limited production volume, the market will not be out of stock, and the main reason for the market to rise is “emotion”. The current one is to take advantage of the trend, to measure the input, and the second is to control the inventory and risk. Observe and wait for the next change in the market.
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