Experts say the steel market - July 9
My steel: Last week, the domestic steel market price weakened. For the later market, the increase in the arrival of most varieties and the obstruction of transactions have caused strong bearish psychology among traders and the market. In addition, the current stage of entering the demand season is difficult to support in the medium and long term. Therefore, the market's overall willingness to price is still low. Secondly, with the continuous decline of the spot in the past two weeks, the price of some varieties is gradually lower than the spot cost of inventory. In addition, the transaction is not easy to improve after the fall. The price of the large-scale correction does not have practical significance, and the operation may maintain a small loose shipment. It is expected that the domestic steel market price will be mainly weakened during the week (2018.7.9-2018.7.13).
Steel House: On July 6, the United States violated the WTO rules and began to impose a 25% tariff on the $34 billion Chinese product, launching a large-scale trade war in economic history. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce said that such taxation in the United States is a typical trade hegemonism, which is seriously jeopardizing the safety of the global industrial chain and value chain, hindering the pace of global economic recovery and triggering global market turmoil. The Chinese side promised not to fight the guns, but in order to defend the core interests of the country and the interests of the people, they had to be forced to make necessary counterattacks. The Sino-US trade war has limited impact on the recent market, but if the United States further expands the scale of trade wars, it will lead to aggravation of commodity prices. Last week, the State Council issued the "Three-Year Action Plan for the Blue Sky Defence War". The key areas were expanded from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the surrounding areas to the Yangtze River Delta and the Plains. The three regions involved about 500 million tons of iron-making capacity, and the environmental protection efforts were further strengthened. Later, it will further constrain the exertion of steel production capacity. At present, the output of key domestic steel enterprises maintains a high level, and the market inventory is low. The construction steel continues to decline, the market demand remains generally stable, and the Sino-US trade war has limited impact on the recent market. It is expected that the domestic steel market price will be dominated by shocks this week (2018.7.9-2018.7.13).
Lange Horsepower: There are two main concerns in the near future: one is the Sino-US trade war, which has already started. For the time being, it has little effect on steel. Before the war was expected, the negative impact has been released. But from the perspective of the overall capital market, it will continue. Although environmental protection and de-capacity continued to increase in size last week, although the high-ranking officials reduced the renminbi, the renminbi would not be excessively devalued. Although the central mother continued to release liquidity, the market sentiment was caused, first of all, the capital market violently fluctuated.
The second is the inventory of steel, the inventory of the factory, and the variables of social inventory, whether it is rising or falling. In particular, the first two periods have increased the inflection point after the continuous decline, and the market sensitivity has increased significantly, which has a greater impact on market confidence and sentiment. However, from the recent statistics, in the case of both blast furnace operating rate and crude steel output rising, not only did it not increase but unexpectedly fell back. This has strong support for the market, indicating that downstream demand is not imaginary. Weak!
Then there is no need to be too pessimistic about the Sino-US trade war, even if short-term shocks are inevitable, and even prepare for a protracted war. However, due to the psychological and technical aspects in the early stage, it has been prepared in advance. From the inside of the industry, including hedging, reducing inventory, environmentally friendly production capacity, increasing liquidity, etc., it will wash away some negative effects. In addition, the state will weaken the impact by stimulating domestic demand, increasing infrastructure investment and so on.
After the loss of the air, after the release of risk aversion, whether it can be welcomed is still to be further observed. But once the important events have landed, the tight nerves will be relieved.
In the short-term, the market is not well-sold, the shipment is slow, the seasonal demand is more weakened, the impact of the trade war is superimposed, the volatility adjustment pattern continues, and the individual time period will even accelerate the decline, but the game of environmental protection and low inventory is also negative. Will continue, so the market as a whole remains at a high level of volatility.
Zhuo Chuang Wang Quotations: The news of Sino-US trade friction in July has not been significantly upgraded, and the macro bad news has been gradually digested. The market is currently rising and falling. It is difficult to suppress the price rise above the demand. The lower billet inventory is low and low. Support, the price of the basic interval, but consider the demand above the suppression is more intense, steel prices shocked down the probability is greater, it is expected this week (2018.7.9-2018.7.13) steel price range shocked down.
Han Weidong, deputy general manager of Youfa Group: The Sino-US trade war has officially begun. How to evolve has a huge impact on the market. We must carefully watch out for it. The market entered July, and the performance was not better than last month, and it was not worse than last year. That is to say, there is no good conversion, and it does not continue to deteriorate. Social stocks have declined slightly after rising for two consecutive weeks, giving people a feeling of relief! But as long as the market has not completely changed, as long as the high price, high profit and weak demand have not changed, as long as the Sino-US trade war has not reached a settlement, the risk will not be lifted! The risk prevention is still *bit!
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